The Latest Guesty COVID-19 Data: USA’s Labor Day Promising & Italy On The Mend
Here at Guesty we are gradually releasing our data from across all major booking channels, as we look towards the short-term rental ecosystem’s recovery.
Labor Day Data Points to a Strong Fall
The US travel industry has a new target date for the beginning of a strong fall: Labor Day weekend. According to our data across all major booking channels, this appears to be the first meaningful date for domestic travel where, currently, 2020 reservations are equal to 2019.
This Labor Day will likely outdo last year’s considering folks are dreaming of travel, taking advantage of reduced daily rates and working from home, giving them the flexibility to take a domestic staycation to a short-term rental (if their state/city allows it).
This data, coupled with the promising holiday numbers we shared last week via CNBC, points to an upswing in the second half of the year. We found that reservations for Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year’s Eve stays are up 38%, 40% and 23%, respectively, compared to the reservations we had in our system at this same time last year.
Recovery Is Here, with USA Leading in New Reservations and Italy on the Mend
Dates mentioned showcase May 1-18, 2020 VS April 1-18, 2020
Our data shows the USA leading in the volume of reservations with the number of new reservations created in May increasing by 87% compared to April.
Italy is coming in 6th in terms of new reservation volume, with a 130% increase in new reservations in May compared to April. The cities in Italy showing the most new reservations are Milan and Lake Como, and the average length of stay being booked for new reservations is nine days. This is a decrease compared to April, which saw an average length of stay of 11 days in Italy. However, this is still relatively high for the country compared to its pre-coronavirus average length of stay, which was four days.
We know that many European countries are planning to loosen restrictions in June and July; in most EU countries we have yet to see an uptick in new reservations, but we are certain once restrictions are lifted, they will increasingly flow in.
The top six countries by reservation volume is:
- USA: The number of new reservations created in May is 87% more than it was in April
- Australia: The number of new reservations created in May has increased by 41.3% compared to April
- The UK: Although the United Kingdom is in 3rd place in terms of booking volume this month, the country is still showing a decrease in new reservations of -14% compared to April.
- Canada: With a 7% uptick in reservations this month compared to April.
- France: With 20% more reservations compared to April
- Italy: After weeks of lockdown, Italy is now experiencing a 130% increase in new reservations in May compared to April.
Summer is Bright
The average nightly rates (ANR) in summer 2020 will continue to rise month over month in the US, UK, France and Italy. As you can see from the graph below, August demands the highest price point in each country, respectively.
We believe there will be a significant uptick in near-term bookings as countries begin to explore travel bubbles (such as Austria and Germany; Australia and New Zealand; and Israel/Cyprus/Greece). This is due to the pent up demand for travel — travelers want to make up for lost time and perhaps celebrate life moments that they were unable to due to the pandemic, such as birthdays, anniversaries, graduation trips and more.
This means that those who previously pivoted to targeting domestic travelers/locals in the last couple of months will again need to be agile in their marketing strategies, shifting to also target those in the countries that have travel agreements with the ones where their listings are.
For more predictions on the future of travel, check out this op-ed in Forbes by Guesty Co-founder & CEO, Amiad Soto.